11-April-2020 :

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oMnx388H-Dk

  1. Due to Covid-19, ppl will be allowed to work from home and the first fallout will be in commercial Real estate, where the prices will drop.
  2. Residential sector might rise , people might want to move to bigger flats.
  3. API companies in Pharma isgoing to move from China to India .
  4. Auto sector is dead as per the Shankar sharma , Sameer.
  5. What will happen after the lockdown ? There is not easy way out for India , Oil bonanza , PSU disinvestment.
  6. The entire discussion is with an assumption that Medicine or solution will not come out .
  7. India is in a bear Market since 2018 . Now Bear market in the Financials in India.
  8. US is even buying junk bonds and this money can come to India - Madhu.
  9. Sector benifit will be Tech, Telecom.
  10. Nobody knows about a company beyond a point.

10-April-2020 :

  1. Ray Dalio/Howards Marks says , we are into depression and we are into massive recession.
  2. Missing out on oppertunity or Caution in losing out more money.
  3. Emphasis on Biotechs.
  4. Raghuram Rajan : Deep Recession this year,lockdown.China 35% gdp fall in first quater. US and West thr growth will be -3,4 %.
  5. Raghuram Rajan : Next year things might recover if the enconomies are handled. Upturn in economy depends on fast testing and tracking of the virus.

02-April-2020 :

  • As per IMF, Recession and Bear market has begun. Such Recession is not seen in last 150 years.
  • The coronavirus economic freeze could cost 47 million jobs and send the unemployment rate past 32%, according to St. Louis Fed projections.
  • There are nearly 67 million Americans working in jobs that are at a high risk of layoffs, according to the analysis.
  • In India , poors are struggling to get 1 meal a day . Entire Indian Economy is at a stand still.
  • Individual stocks are still falling there is no confirm Vaccine avaliable .
  • Covid19 , vaccine will be avaliable within 12-18 Months , phase-1 trails are ongoing.
  • Waiting to see united or broken the world will emerge after this Pandemic fear.
  • Will this event shift the world dominance from US to China or China will be broken by the West like USSR.
  • Human psychology is always to put the blame on someone , will this pandameic be remembered as a chinese.
  • Time will tell will The political power shift from CCP to someone else.
  • UN says , India and China will emerge strong out of this Pandemic and the imapct of recession will be less in those two countries.
  • Chinese billioniars real estate tycoons have sold almost everything in America from 2016-till now. There was a big surge in chinese real estate buying from 2008 to 2016 .
  • One important thing to note from last 4-5 years was in Indian Economy , Banks were struggling , Economist employeed by GOV are leaving. There are whistle blowers that something is wrong b/w the high gov official and PMO.

29-March-2020 : Last 100 years of India and the world

  • 2031: ABC
  • 2030:
  • 2020: Covid-19 led to recession in the entire world and In India .
  • 2011: India and the world was in Recession , there was a slow recovery . Internet and mobile phone buzz was catching up.
  • 2010: Nothing Significant b/w we were still into recession and Stock prices were at its low. 2008 we hit recession subprime crisis.
  • 2001:
  • 2000:
  • 1991:
  • 1990:
  • 1981:
  • 1980:
  • 1971:The Indo-Pakistani War of 1971 begins as Pakistan attacks 9 Indian airbases
  • 1970:
  • 1961: Indo-China War and Sino-Indian Border Conflict, was a war between China and India that occurred in 1962.
  • 1960:
  • 1951:
  • 1950:
  • 1941:
  • 1940:
  • 1931:
  • 1930: The Great Depression was a severe worldwide economic depression that took place mostly during the 1930s, beginning in the United States.Between 1929 and 1932, worldwide gross domestic product (GDP) fell by an estimated 15%.Farming communities and rural areas suffered as crop prices fell by about 60%.
  • 1921: The Communist Party of China (CPC) is founded, Adolf Hitler becomes Führer of the Nazi Party.The United States formally ends World War I. The airline industry literally took off after 1925.
  • 1920: Polish–Soviet War in 1920 , 1918 flu pandemic: The “Spanish flu” (influenza) is first observed in Haskell County, Kansas. Europe was into mess. 1920-1924 july the recession ended. The Depression of 1920–21 was a sharp deflationary recession in the United States and other countries, beginning 14 months after the end of World War I. It lasted from January 1920 to July 1921.The extent of the deflation was not only large, but large relative to the accompanying decline in real product.
  • 1911: International Women’s Day is celebrated for the first time across Europe
  • 1910:
  • 1901:
  • 1900:

26-March-2020 : My Learning

India has announced a Financial Package , this rasied the hopes of the Bulls.

  1. As of today , many of the the experts are still suggesting to keep cash , Shankar Sharma , Vijay Kedia and refraining for any new buys.
  2. Though they are not suggesting any buy are they buying themself is something to be checked.
  3. Spain, Italy , China , US are the worst imapcted by the Covid-19 , India Markets are linked(shadow) to the US so both the markets rise with the stimulus.
  4. Good news amid the gloom: Monsoons expected to be normal. [https://www.moneycontrol.com/news/business/moneycontrol-research/good-news-amid-the-gloom-monsoons-expected-to-be-normal-5075651.html]
  5. It will be intresting to see if market has found the bottom and individual stocks still have scope to go down.
  6. Track this trend in China , [https://www.businesstoday.in/current/economy-politics/coronavirus-chinas-factories-reopen-only-to-fire-employees/story/399315.html]

22-March-2020 : My Learning

The 2020 Covid-19 Financial Market Crash and 2008-2009 Subprime Financial Market Crash.The Indian market can crash by 10-15% Nifty each day. Look for the below points and buy in staggered manner.

  1. To have enough Cash to buy in such Markets , Such Markets only comes in 10 Years .
  2. Dont Rush to buy, wait for recovery . The Fear in the mind last longer than actual senarios turnouts.
  3. Observe double bottom , W shape recovery pattern.
  4. Financial Crash have symptoms which that start 2-3 years beforehand. Some happen due to Political reasons, some due to Financial Reasons etc etc.
  5. In Financial Crashes : All around the world GOV’s come out and start discussing Relief packages, Reduce Interest rates, Boost the economy by providing tax cuts.
  6. Always a single country is the epicenter of the crash and it resonate the vibrations to others. It shows how much that country matters . Though this started with China but Indian Markets collapsed with the US markets and rose with it .
  7. Country Specific recession and Global Recession . It always starts with individual Countries and then propogate to all others.
  8. During Financial Crash the biggest and the best companies of the Country and globe get demolised by 25-30%. Alawys track them in a basket.
  9. Financial Crash, can start because of Pandemic , Bad Debt , War , Political instability , trade war , Cold war , N/w Security war.
  10. In the Biggest crashes the most important thing to note, world leaders start speaking individually to the Nation and they do it daily.
  11. Financial Market leaders speak before the big bang crash and before the big bang recovery.
  12. When to buy and at what price to buy, I haven’t figured out during this crash, I am waiting to see will the W (double bottom) recovery theory works well here.
  13. Leadership of countries and their harmony need to be monitored .
  14. Debt to the world per countries need to be monitored.
  15. Trade wars and Trade tariffs need to be monitored.
  16. Check if thier is a big shift after the Covid-19 is solved in doing business internally in an organization, with China and with other countries.

22-March-2020

  1. Wall Street Crash of 1929 24 Oct 1929 United States Lasting over 4 years, the bursting of the speculative bubble in shares led to further selling as people who had borrowed money to buy shares had to cash them in, when their loans were called in. Also called the Great Crash or the Wall Street Crash, leading to the Great Depression.
  2. Look if the the above point no 1 , has started to play from March-2020 and it leads to a great depression in next 10 years .
  3. Try to catch this by getting a ratio of Debt and Population of America, Japan, Germany and China. As of today I doont know if there is a better indicator and I will read.
  4. Track if the biggest of world investors like Warren Buffet and Ray Dalio are reducing Debt and adding Cash.
  5. List of stock market crashes and bear markets : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_stock_market_crashes_and_bear_markets
  6. Great Depression : https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Depression.
  7. 09-Mar-2020 Interview : Prashant Jain of HDFC says, Leadership change in Markets. 1992 leadership moved from old eco to Tech. 2000 Tech was expensive .Leader moved from Tech to non tech 2008. Then came the crash in 2007. Then Leadership changed from Infra , utlity, NBFC to FMCM , Pharma , automobiles.WIll this lead to a Leadership change
  8. Prashant Jain : New Leadeship will be Business doing well , the dividen yield are more than the bond yeild. Hated Sectors might take the lead.
  9. (PJ) Says things are better for India, Crude Oil and GLobal Yield are down. India IMports 100 billion dollars of Crude this gives the Fiscal Space to India. 10 . (PJ) Growth in India has bottomed out , Profit Growth has bottomed up , Bank NPA is behind us.
  10. 22-March-2020 : Saurabh M : China has Recovered nicely from Covid. [https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9rZ0cht_Bms] , next two weeks Deaths in India doesnot escalate , FII buying will start flowing.

20-March-2020

  1. Joel Greenblatt: “The Little Book that Beats the Market” Talks at Google : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=bZfPJCAVQg0

20-March-2020

  1. Reading some old stuff : http://value-picks.blogspot.com/2015/01/the-score-card-2010-2014_1.html.
  2. I am analysing Power Mec , it has fallen from 1100 to 320 , the profits have not fallen yet. Order book is good except the one cancelled in Telengana by the new Gov.
  3. During the times of Covid-19 the impact is still unknown, Manish chokhani enam securities says teh recovery will be in W.
  4. The Nations are into lockdown due to this pandemic , the after effects of these to businesses are unknown to me . Where is read and listen most of the ppl havent seen such a thing in thier lifetime .
  5. Globalization vs Tribalism which one will play a bigger role.

19-March-2020

  1. Sensex tanks 500 points , warren b : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=JvEas_zZ4fM
  2. We have Negative Intrest Rates in the world and have never seen that before , Banks major earning are interest rates.
  3. After 10 years what will be the impact, Lets see it is not a normal situation.
  4. It’s is usefull today in stimulating the markets and asset prices since 2008-2009.
  5. Bad for Insurance companies.
  6. Ray Dalio, the founder of Bridgewater Associates, estimated the U.S. corporate losses will amount to $4 trillion due to the coronavirus pandemic.
  7. Globally, the outbreak will cost corporations $12 trillion, he added.
  8. “What’s happening has not happened in our lifetime before. … What we have is a crisis,” Dalio said. “There will also be individuals who have very big losses.”
  9. Dalio added the fiscal stimulus package should be at least $1.5 trillion to $2 trillion.

18-March-2020

  1. Sensex tanks 811 points -covid19, Negative.
  2. The bottom has still to not come, remaining with 5-10% cash.
  3. In bear markets everything falls, with 50-60% . Even the best of the stocks are not spared. Europe and US is pumping cash , interest rates are cut to 0% in US, Oil prices have plummeted.
  4. All these senarios are good for the India view however India which has just recovered has got the GLobal shock .
  5. The World debt has increase a lot.
  6. India Banking system is recovering from the Yes bank Saga